Democrats maintain leads in polls showing most Arizonans already voted

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With one week before polls open, most Arizonans must have made up their minds already.

Two polls, a Monmouth University poll conducted the week of Oct. 9 and the other by OH Predictive Insights conducted last week, shows Democrat Joe Biden with a six and four percentage point lead over Republican President Donald Trump, respectively.

Most notably was the large percentage increase in respondents who had already cast their ballots early. In the poll conducted Oct. 9-13, Monmouth found 19% of those polled say they have already returned their ballots. They found 24% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans, and 17% of independents had already voted.

A week later, OHPI found 59% of the 716 voters polled across Arizona had already voted. The poll found 70% of Democrats, 54% of independents, and 54% of Republicans had voted early.

“Republicans are putting their faith in good weather and short lines Tuesday,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said. “Something as simple as a light drizzle may cost the GOP crucial votes in an already close race.”

U.S. Sen. Martha McSally, a Republican, still trails Democrat Mark Kelly. The former astronaut and husband to former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords led McSally by a 52%-42% split in the Monmouth poll. OHPI’s polling has Kelly leading McSally by five percentage points.

Kelly still leads by a wide margin with independents, the OHPI poll showing the Democrat with 53% support compared to McSally’s 37% among those who claim neither party. The Monmouth poll asked about McSally’s support of Trump. Half of the respondents said the appointed senator was “too supportive” of the incumbent president. A similar number said they feared Kelly would be “beholden to the left” if elected.

Both the Monmouth poll and OHPI’s polling found Proposition 207, which would legalize recreational cannabis use in Arizona if successful, had rebounded from previous polls. Respondents told MU that 56% supported the ballot initiative. OHPI found 60% support for 207.

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